Restaurants Research

Title Tickers Date Pages
CMG: Chipotle - Looking for Modest 4Q SSS Miss, but EPS Upside Driven by Delivery Menu Price Increases; At Almost 30x 2022 EBITDA, Risk>Reward CMG 2021-01-26 9
Casual Dining Segment Read Throughs from BJRI Pre-Release - Indoor Dining Suspension Headwinds Peaked in Late December, Jan. SSS Declines Moderating as States Slowly Allow Reopening 2021-01-22 6
SBUX: Starbucks Corp - Looking for Modest EPS Upside & for Shares to Shrug Off F2Q US SSS Guidance Intro Miss; Fully Valued at 30x EPS (25% premium) SBUX 2021-01-22 7
EAT: Brinker International - Looking for Moderating SSS Declines in Jan w/ End of Indoor Dining Suspension in Several States; $15 Min Wage Will Be a Call Focus EAT 2021-01-21 6
MCD: McDonald's - Expect 4Q20/Jan. SSS Shortfall w/ Restrictions Up Globally; Reward > Risk w/ Market Appreciating Headwinds + G&A/Capex Reset MCD 2021-01-20 9
A Look Back at Early Days of the Pandemic for Restaurant Sector - Everything You Need to Know as Sector Begins to Lap Pandemic Onset: State/Company Response, Reopening, Relative SSS & More 2021-01-15 17
DPZ: Domino's Pizza Inc - Select ‘21 Guidance Introduced; Small Downward EPS Revisions Likely Follow – SSS Decline Prospects Cap NT Price Appreciation DPZ 2021-01-12 5
PLAY/RRGB Business Updates: #’s Ugly, But Largely Expected - PLAY’s -75% SSS in Nov./Dec. & RRGB’s -40% in Dec. Underscore Headwinds Seen Exiting 2020; Weakness Widely Appreciated 2021-01-11 7
Minimum Wage Update w/ Democrats Taking Senate Control - Based on Business Model & Geographic Exposure – CHUY, CBRL, BLMN, TXRH, EAT & PLAY Most Impacted by Potential Wage Hike 2021-01-07 5
Reducing 4Q20/1Q21 Casual Dining SSS, EBITDA & EPS Estimates - High Frequency Data Shows Softening Trends Through 3rd Week of December, Brief Holiday Reprieve & Weak Trends in Early January 2021-01-06 15
Casual Dining’s Pursuit of a Leaner Post-COVID Cost Structure - DRI Most Aggressive w/ LT Cost Control, Street Not Convinced with BLMN/CAKE Guidance & TXRH Rightfully Sees No Need for Cuts 2020-12-22 6
DRI: Darden Restaurants - SSS Trends Ugly as Expected; Shares Pricey w/ DRI Pursuing Sizeable LT Cost Controls, We Are Buyers on Any Weakness in Coming Wks DRI 2020-12-18 8
DRI: Darden Restaurants - Street Was Braced for Sizeable F3Q QTD SSS and EPS Guidance Shortfall, But Not One Quite This Big DRI 2020-12-18 5
CBRL: Cracker Barrel - Model Update CBRL 2020-12-17 4
EAT: Brinker International - EAT SSS Miss the First of Many for Casual Dining Segment as the Market Appears to Appreciate; Note from Mgmt. Follow Up Call EAT 2020-12-16 7
Indoor Dining Suspension Impact on Sales/Traffic Through 12/12 - Visualizing the Impact of Mounting Mitigation Efforts on Casual Dining Trends in Key States & on a National Basis 2020-12-15 7
PLAY: Dave & Buster's - Market Can See Light at End of Tunnel, but w/ SSS & EBITDA #s Continuing to Fall & Debt Up, The Recovery Looks to Roll into ‘23 PLAY 2020-12-10 5
SBUX: Starbucks Corp - Investor Day Headlines Impress: Increase in LT EPS Guidance & Prospect of Refranchising in 2023; But Shares Rich at 30x ’22 EPS SBUX 2020-12-09 6
DRI: Darden Restaurants - In Backdrop of Aggressive Cost Control, We See Street EBITDA #s Moving Up Even w/ SSS Miss; Buyers of Any Weakness on Print DRI 2020-12-08 8
PLAY: Dave & Buster's - Expect F3Q & F4Q QTD SSS Shortfalls/Downward EBITDA Revisions to Follow; Shares Set to Shrug off as Outsized Vaccine Beneficiary PLAY 2020-12-07 7

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