Published Notes

Title Date Pages
Data Update = Black Friday Weekend 2020 - Bah Humbug! Data Feeds Disappoint Led By 23.5% Drop in Traffic + Much Softer Relative Digital Trends; Basket’s Rise 5.0% To Help 2020-11-30 8
S&P wants all the INFO, Benioff now a certified sandbagger, Bayer waves goodbye to Elanco, AGCO dustup has legs (SPGI, CRM, ELAN, AGCO, FL, KBR, CDK, SNX, AAN, GRA) 2020-11-30
Multi-Industry - Entering the automotive fast lane 2020-11-30 12
Social Distancing Restaurant Consumer Survey Week 38 - With Rising Case Counts & Colder Weather, Restaurant Consumer Behavior Is Reverting to Patterns Not Seen Since Late May 2020-11-30 4
4th Annual Black Friday Shopping Survey - 58% Shopped TY vs. Only 47% LY with $397 Avg. Basket (Flat YOY); KSS, WMT, AMZN Retain Crowns; Toys + CE > Apparel by Category 2020-11-29 9
Tracking Consumer Behavior in a Covid World (Week #38) - Vaccine News Shines Through as Aversion/Fears Drop, But Covid Spikes, Leading to Early-Covid Period Behaviors; Stay Barbelled 2020-11-27 7
JWN: Nordstrom - Not Chasing The 100% Upward Move Since November 1st; Stay Disciplined 2020-11-25 6
Restaurant Sector High Frequency Data Snapshot Through 11/22 - Analysis of 6 Different Sales & Traffic Data Sets Strongly Suggests That It’s Going to Get Quite a Bit Darker Before the Dawn 2020-11-25 6
BURL: Burlington Stores, Inc. - Taking the Free Pass as Model Has Proven Its Resiliency; Post 3Q Notes, Mgmt. Call Back – Staying Constructive with Buy/$246 PT 2020-11-24 6
DLTR: Dollar Tree - Upgrade to Buy-Rated = Intersection of Operational Improvement + Stock Underperformance Creates Entry Point, New $140 PT 2020-11-24 7
Sealed Air unpacks another CFO, no pain for Bain at Nutanix, the Stack Era winds down at Dick’s, CoreLogic opponent is looking to “sweep the leg” (SEE, NTNX, DKS, CLGX, XPO) 2020-11-24 4
Broadline & Hardline Retail - Burlington (+/-) & Dollar Tree (++) . . . Initial Reactions Post 3Q20 Prints 2020-11-24 6
Proprietary data (November MRO traffic remains generally steady; Grainger decelerates) 2020-11-24 15
Proprietary data (Modest price increases in November) 2020-11-24 5
Data Update: Web Traffic (11/23) - Big Uptick for Most Names in Most Recent Week; Williams Sonoma’s Strong Pace Continues + Upside to Wayfair Direct Revenue Targets 2020-11-23 3
BJ: BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. - Clearing the Air On Membership & Latest November (Through 11/21) Footfall + Basket Data Signal Acceleration From October Levels 2020-11-23 3
FirstEnergy needs to clean house, CoStar breaks the seal in residential, Encompass story passes first test, Altice shows off its fluency in Dutch (FE, CLGX, EHC, ATUS, VTRS, SYY) 2020-11-23 4
3Q Statutory Review of Claims Points to Less 4Q Reserve Risk 2020-11-23 6
November 2020 Macro Survey (#43) - GHRA Sentiment Index Falls To 68.1 vs. 4 Year Avg. of 91.8; Costco Trip Frequency Moves Higher + Home Improve Spend Still Elevated 2020-11-23 10
Airbnb IPO Prep - October Short-term Rental KPIs - US Gross Booking Improvement in October Driven by Supply/Demand Imbalance for “Entire Place” Rental Properties 2020-11-23 5

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